Recent research shows that start‐ups are important for job creation, but these firms are also inherently volatile. We use linked employer–employee data to examine the relative importance of firm age and firm size for job creation and destruction in Brazil. Firm age is a more important determinant of job creation in Brazil than firm size; young firms and start‐ups create a relatively high number of jobs. However, young firms are also more likely to exit the market and have higher levels of employment volatility. We, therefore, condition the job creation analysis on job stability. Young firms and large firms create relatively more stable jobs in Brazil.
This paper examines the usefulness of the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) in forecasting key labor market variables, particularly unemployment rates. Using a number of models, we compare out-of-sample forecasts of the unemployment rate with the LMCI to those without the LMCI. We also estimate models of the disaggregated unemployment rates by gender, race, and race by gender, with and without the LMCI, to identify disparities in the predictive power of the LMCI for different subgroups. Last, to determine how the LMCI performs in the presence of labor market shocks, we compare the forecasting performance of the LMCI during recessionary periods and expansionary periods. Out results confirm the potential usefulness of the LMCI as a parsimonious forecasting tool; we find that the LMCI generally improves unemployment forecasts. But, disparities exist in the predictive power of the index across subpopulations and the index forecasts slightly better during recessionary periods than expansionary periods.
PAPERS UNDER REVIEW
THE EFFECT OF A TRADE SHOCK ON GENDER-SPECIFIC LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES IN BRAZIL (UNDER REVIEW AT LABOUR ECONOMICS)
Countries around the world continue to open their borders to international trade, creating both winners and losers in the process. In this paper, I analyze the impact of a trade shock on gender-specific local labor market outcomes in Brazil. Using an instrumental variable approach and administrative panel data for the formal labor market in Brazil, I estimate the effect of both increased imports from China and increased exports to China on male and female labor market outcomes in Brazil. Increased trade with China is associated with increased employment growth for both men and women in the traded and non-traded sectors; women's relative employment position also improves in the non-traded sector. Increased trade with China also increases male and female wage growth in both sectors; however, this only translates to improvement in the average wage ratio in the traded sector. Breaking the analysis down by skill indicates that trade with China benefits both low-skilled and high-skilled female workers in Brazil.
LABOR MARKET ADJUSTMENTS TO TRADE WITH CHINA: THE CASE OF BRAZIL (WITH PETER BRUMMUND)
Many countries continue to integrate into the world economy, increasing their reliance on international trade. Increased trade often creates large gains dispersed across the economy and losses focused on some sectors and workers. The negative impacts of trade can be mitigated if workers can easily adjust to the changing landscape, and the ability to adjust may be different by gender. In this paper, we analyze the impact of both increased imports from China and exports to China on labor market adjustments in Brazil, separately by gender. We use administrative panel data for the formal labor market in Brazil for the years 2004 to 2013. In contrast to previous findings, our results show that microregions exposed to increased exports see an increase in both in-migration and out-migration, whereas microregions exposed to increased imports see a decrease in out-migration. Males exhibit slightly stronger responses. We also find that exposure to either imports or exports increases the transitions to the traded sector and reduces the transitions to nonemployment, for both males and females.
UNDERSTANDING THE GENDER WAGE GAP AMONG AMERICAN CITY MANAGERS (WITH JENNIFER CONNOLLY)
A majority of U.S. municipalities hire a professional manager to oversee municipal operations. Women make up only a small portion of the city managers in the United States and are paid less, on average, than their male counterparts. Though prior research examines the gender wage gap in other public sector organizations, including federal and state agencies, few studies have examined the gender wage gap among city managers. Using original data from manager employment contracts, manager resumes, and additional municipal level data, we examine the gender wage gap among city managers in Florida. We conduct a wage decomposition analysis to parse out differences in individual characteristics and the nature of each specific job and municipality that impact manager compensation separate from gender. The remaining unexplained portion of the gender wage gap suggests that municipal councils may compensate men more generously than women, all else equal. We find that certain characteristics are valued more among men than women, particularly experience. The average female annual salary would increase by 4 percentage points if female characteristics were valued the same as their male counterparts, even once individual, job, and city characteristics are accounted for.
WORKS IN PROGRESS
IS THERE A GLASS CLIFF IN CITY MANAGEMENT? EXPLORING THE HIRING DECISIONS OF MUNICIPAL COUNCILS (WITH JENNIFER CONNOLLY AND KATE YANG)
HOW DISASTERS AFFECT VENTURE CAPITAL FIRMS (WITH ALICE SHEEHAN AND ROOZBEH GHASEMI)