RESEARCH INTERESTS Labor Economics, Economics of Gender, Public Policy, Applied Microeconomics
PEER REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS
"Regional Economic Impact of University Research Expenditures"(with Jenny Apriesnig, Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira, and Kathleen Halvorsen). Studies in Higher Education (2024), 1-26. Governments around the world provide significant funds for research activities at higher education institutions. Despite universities' increased emphasis on external research funds and increased national funding for university research, little is known about the economic impacts specific to research expenditures. We use IMPLAN, an input-output model, to analyze the local economic impacts of externally sponsored university research expenditures in two geographic areas using a technological university in the Midwestern United States as a case study. For the rural micropolitan area, we find that one million dollars in university external research expenditures is associated with $711,000 in value added, 10 jobs, and $159,000 in tax revenue. The effects per million dollars of expenditures are typically larger in the medium metropolitan area; one million dollars in university external research expenditures is associated with $945,000 in value added, 9 jobs, and $164,000 in tax revenue. We also estimate value added, employment, and tax multipliers of 1.67, 1.86, and 1.74 for the micropolitan area and 2.02, 2.25, and 2.093 in the medium metropolitan area. Last, we show that 15-18% of generated tax revenue goes to the state and 75–77% goes to the federal government. Our results highlight the local and statewide economic returns to national public policy to invest in university research activities and how characteristics of the local economy influence the magnitude of those returns. The variation in the impacts also suggests that policy makers should be aware of differences across both geographic areas and impact measures (e.g. employment versus output). "Labor Mobility and the Affordable Care Act: Heterogeneous Impacts of the Preexisting Conditions Provision" (with Matt Hampton and Otto Lenhart), Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (2024), 43(1), 157-191. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) preexisting conditions provision ensures that insurance companies can no longer deny coverage, charge higher premiums, or exclude coverage due to a preexisting health condition. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of the provision on labor mobility. We use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for years 2009 through 2019 and estimate difference-in-differences models to determine whether the provision improved labor mobility for individuals with chronic conditions. While females respond along the extensive margin by being less likely to work, males experience broader labor mobility improvements. Men are more likely to start a new job, become employed in a different industry, and move to a different state in the post-policy period. Labor mobility improvements are largest among males with household incomes greater than 138% of the federal poverty level, males ages 35 to 49, and males with conditions first diagnosed more than 10 years ago. Last, we show that the policy improved access to health insurance coverage and reduced the likelihood that health impacts the amount or type of work, which ultimately increased labor market flexibility. Our results highlight the heterogenous impacts of the provision on different subgroups of the population.
"Understanding the Gender Wage Gap Among City Managers" (with Jennifer M. Connolly), Journal of Economic Insight (2023), 49(2), 37-105. We examine the gender wage gap among city managers, a high-skilled, male dominated occupation, using original data from employment contracts in Florida. The Oaxaca-Blinder wage decomposition results indicate a gender wage differential among city managers of approximately 0.06-0.11 log points, or 6.3-11.7%. Approximately 80% of the wage differential is explained by differences in observed characteristics, leaving 20% of the gap unexplained. This translates to an unexplained wage premium of 1.5 to 3.8% for men. The wage differential is highest among first time managers and is virtually eliminated for those with prior experience as a city manager. The results are encouraging but also highlight the potential role of pay transparency policies and the importance of increasing women’s representation in the field.
"Is There a Glass Cliff in Local Government Management? Examining the Hiring and Departure of Women" (with Lang Kate Yang and Jennifer M. Connolly), Public Administration Review (2022), 82(3), 570-584. Women are underrepresented in public sector leadership positions, including municipal management. We examine one explanation that may contribute to gender inequity in the profession—a “glass cliff” phenomenon whereby councils are more likely to hire women as managers during difficult times, increasing the likelihood for women to fail in the position. Using original observational data on municipal managers in Florida, we test whether municipalities are more likely to hire women during times of fiscal stress and whether women are more likely than men to leave the position if municipal finances do not improve. Our results show that increasing budget deficits are associated with municipalities hiring women as managers. Post-appointment, a lack of improvement in the deficit condition is associated with a higher probability of women, but not men, leaving the position. A glass cliff in municipal management could be one factor that hinders women from advancing within the field.
"The Effect of a Trade Shock on Gender-specific Labor Market Outcomes in Brazil," Labour Economics (2022), 74. As countries around the world increasingly engage in international trade, labor market dynamics respond, creating both winners and losers. In this paper, I analyze the impact of a trade shock on gender-specific local labor market outcomes in Brazil. I use an instrumental variable approach and population census data for Brazil to estimate the effect of both increased imports from China and increased exports to China on male and female local labor market outcomes from 2000 to 2010. Regions more exposed to imports from China experience slower wage growth in the traded and formal sectors, but the declines are significantly larger for men, particularly in sectors with low shares of female employment. Exports have a positive association with wages, but no relationship with employment. Import exposure is also associated with significant employment gains for males and females in the formal sector, but the gains for women are nearly double those for men. Employment gains are concentrated in high-skilled employment, supporting the mechanism of trade-induced skill biased technical change. As firms upgrade their technology and productivity, they favor skilled labor and increasingly view men and women as substitutes. As employment reallocates in response to trade, occupation segregation declines, highlighting an additional avenue through which trade can have gendered labor market effects. "Who Creates Stable Jobs? Evidence from Brazil" (with Peter Brummund), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statitsics (2019), 81(3), 540-563. Recent research shows that start‐ups are important for job creation, but these firms are also inherently volatile. We use linked employer–employee data to examine the relative importance of firm age and firm size for job creation and destruction in Brazil. Firm age is a more important determinant of job creation in Brazil than firm size; young firms and start‐ups create a relatively high number of jobs. However, young firms are also more likely to exit the market and have higher levels of employment volatility. We, therefore, condition the job creation analysis on job stability. Young firms and large firms create relatively more stable jobs in Brazil.
"Evaluating the Impact of the Labor Market Conditions Index on Labor Market Forecasts" (with Alice Sheehan), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2018), 22(1). This paper examines the usefulness of the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) in forecasting key labor market variables, particularly unemployment rates. Using a number of linear and non-linear models, we compare out-of-sample forecasts of the unemployment rate with the LMCI to those without the LMCI. Further, we estimate models of the disaggregated unemployment rates by gender, race, and race by gender, with and without the LMCI, to identify disparities in the predictive power of the LMCI for different subgroups. We find little evidence that the LMCI improves forecasting models of the different unemployment rates, particularly for longer horizons.
EXTERNAL GRANTS FUNDED
PI, "Regional Economic Impacts of Dredging the Menominee River Harbor" (with Jenny Apriesnig and Travis White), Funded by the City of Menominee (2023), Total Project Value: $69,218. Co-PI, Economic Impact Analysis for Electric Vehicle Battery Recycling Facility (with Lei Pan, Jenny Apriesnig and Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira), Funded as part of a larger project by a federal government agency* (2023), Total Project Value: $8,137,783 (Economic value: $156,547). *Note: only partial details listed due to "do not share" clause required by sponsor. Co-PI, "Renewal of the Existing Environmental Finance Center for EPA Region 5" (with Timothy Colling, Martin Auer, Gary Campbell, Robert Handler, Donald Lafreniere, Daisuke Minakata, Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira, and Guy Pearson), Awarded by the US Environmental Protection Agency (2023); Total Project Value: $3,249,995 (over 5 years). Co-PI, "Eagle Mine Economic Impact Study" (with Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira, Jenny Apriesnig, Mari Buche, and Gary Campbell), Funded by Lundin Mining & Business for Social Responsibility (2021); Total Project Value: $84,659.
WORKS IN PROGRESS
"Temporal Changes to the Added Worker Effect Associated with Spousal Job Loss" (with Nicholas Jolly) -- Under Review (July 2024 Draft) "Revisiting the Effect of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion on Migration" (with Matt Hampton and Otto Lenhart) -- Working Paper (March 2023 Draft) "Labor Market Dynamics and Trade with China: the Case of Brazil" (with Peter Brummund) -- Working Paper (June 2022 Draft) "What's in a Job Ad? An Exploration of Gender Differences in Preferred Job Attributes" (with Cali Curley and Jennifer M. Connolly)
TECHNICAL REPORTS
"Local Economic Impacts of Deepening the Menominee Harbor" (with Jenny Apriesnig and Travis White). Technical Report prepared for the City of Menominee (2024). -- Final Report "Eagle Mine Economic Impact Report" (with Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira, Jenny Apriesnig, Mari Buche, Gary Campbell, Roger McElrath, and Marianna Riquelme). Technical Report prepared for Business for Social Responsibility and Lundin Mining (2022). -- Final Report "Economic Impact of Changes in Passenger Air Service at Houghton County Memorial Airport" (with Jenny Apriesnig and Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira). Technical report prepared for Michigan Technological University's University Relations and Enrollment Office (2022). -- Final Report "Regional Economic Impact of Michigan Tech's Externally Sponsored Research Expenditures, Fiscal Years 2007-2021" (with Jenny Apriesnig and Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira). Technical report prepared for Michigan Technological University's Vice President for Research Office (2022). -- Final Report