RESEARCH INTERESTS Labor Economics, International Trade, Economics of Gender, Public Policy, Applied Microeconomics
PEER REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS
WHO CREATES STABLE JOBS? EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL (WITH PETER BRUMMUND), OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS (2019) Recent research shows that start‐ups are important for job creation, but these firms are also inherently volatile. We use linked employer–employee data to examine the relative importance of firm age and firm size for job creation and destruction in Brazil. Firm age is a more important determinant of job creation in Brazil than firm size; young firms and start‐ups create a relatively high number of jobs. However, young firms are also more likely to exit the market and have higher levels of employment volatility. We, therefore, condition the job creation analysis on job stability. Young firms and large firms create relatively more stable jobs in Brazil.
EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF THE LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS INDEX ON LABOR MARKET FORECASTS (WITH ALICE SHEEHAN), STUDIES IN NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND ECONOMETRICS (2018) This paper examines the usefulness of the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) in forecasting key labor market variables, particularly unemployment rates. Using a number of linear and non-linear models, we compare out-of-sample forecasts of the unemployment rate with the LMCI to those without the LMCI. Further, we estimate models of the disaggregated unemployment rates by gender, race, and race by gender, with and without the LMCI, to identify disparities in the predictive power of the LMCI for different subgroups. We find little evidence that the LMCI improves forecasting models of the different unemployment rates, particularly for longer horizons.
PAPERS UNDER REVIEW
THE EFFECT OF A TRADE SHOCK ON GENDER-SPECIFIC LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES IN BRAZIL (REVISIONS REQUESTED AT LABOUR ECONOMICS) As countries around the world increasingly engage in international trade, labor market dynamics respond, creating both winners and losers. In this paper, I analyze the impact of a trade shock on gender-specific local labor market outcomes in Brazil. I use an instrumental variable approach and population census data for Brazil to estimate the effect of both increased imports from China and increased exports to China on male and female local labor market outcomes from 2000 to 2010. Regions more exposed to imports from China experience slower wage growth in the traded and formal sectors, but the declines are significantly larger for men, particularly in sectors with low shares of female employment. Exports have a positive association with wages, but no relationship with employment. Import exposure is also associated with significant employment gains for males and females in the formal sector, but the gains for women are nearly double those for men. Employment gains are concentrated in high-skilled employment, supporting the mechanism of trade-induced skill biased technical change. As firms upgrade their technology and productivity, they favor skilled labor and increasingly view men and women as substitutes. As employment reallocates in response to trade, occupation segregation declines, highlighting an additional avenue through which trade can have gendered labor market effects.
IS THERE A GLASS CLIFF IN MUNICIPAL MANAGEMENT? EXAMINING THE HIRING AND DEPARTURE OF FEMALE CITY MANANGERS, (WITH LANG KATE YANG AND JENNIFER CONNOLLY), UNDER REVIEW Despite increased gender diversity in many professions, less than 20 percent of city managers nationwide are women. We examine whether there is a “glass cliff” phenomenon in city management whereby councils are more likely to hire female city managers when facing organizational challenges, potentially setting women up for failure in the profession. Using original observational data on city managers in Florida, we test whether municipalities are more likely to hire female city managers during times of fiscal stress and whether female city managers are more likely than their male counterparts to leave the position if municipal finances do not improve. Our results show that increasing budget deficits are associated with municipalities hiring female managers. Post-appointment, failures to improve the deficit condition are associated with a higher probability of female but not male managers leaving the position. Our results suggest that there may be a glass cliff for women in city management and carry important implications regarding increasing and retaining female representation in public sector leadership.
EQUAL PAY FOR EQUAL WORK? UNDERSTANDING THE GENDER WAGE GAP AMONG CITY MANAGERS (WITH JENNIFER CONNOLLY), UNDER REVIEW Economists have recently turned attention to the study of occupation specific gender wage gaps, especially in high skill, traditionally male dominated occupations such as law and medicine. However, we know little about the gender wage gap among city managers, a high skill profession that is overwhelmingly male dominated. Using original data from manager employment contracts, manager resumes, and additional municipal data, we employ a decomposition analysis to examine the impact of individual and municipal level factors on the gender wage gap among city managers in Florida. We also explore whether effects vary across the wage distribution. The results indicate that the gender wage differential among city managers is approximately 8 - 11 percentage points. A significant portion of the wage gap, approximately 80%, is explained by differences in observed individual and organizational characteristics, leaving approximately 20% of the gap unexplained. The gender wage gap is highest in the lower part of the wage distribution and declines as we move up the wage distribution. Across the distribution, the wage gap is highest among first time city managers and is virtually eliminated for those with prior experience as a city manager. The results are encouraging but also highlight the importance of increasing female representation in the field.
LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS AND TRADE WITH CHINA: THE CASE OF BRAZIL (WITH PETER BRUMMUND) Many countries continue to integrate into the world economy, increasing their reliance on international trade. Increased trade often creates large gains dispersed across the economy and losses focused on some sectors and workers. The negative impacts of trade can be mitigated if workers can easily adjust to the changing landscape, and the ability to adjust may be different by gender. In this paper, we analyze the impact of both increased imports from China and exports to China on labor market adjustments in Brazil, separately by gender. We use administrative panel data for the formal labor market in Brazil for the years 2004 to 2013. In contrast to previous findings, our results show that microregions exposed to increased exports see an increase in both in-migration and out-migration, whereas microregions exposed to increased imports see a decrease in out-migration. Males exhibit slightly stronger responses. We also find that exposure to either imports or exports increases the transitions to the traded sector and reduces the transitions to nonemployment, for both males and females.
WORKS IN PROGRESS THINK CRISIS, THINK FEMALE? EVIDENCE OF THE GLASS CLIFF PHENOMENON IN THE STATE OF MICHIGAN DOES CEO GENDER MATTER? IMPLICATIONS FOR ESTABLISHMENT PERFORMANCE